Wall Street heads for a fourth winning year in a row, longest run since 2007

The short version

• The three big American indices are on course for their fourth winning year in a row. For the S&P 500 it would be the longest run since 2007.
• On 1 September twelve companies in the S&P 500 recorded a new yearly low, but only seven a new yearly high.
• Dow and S&P 500 are up in the third quarter, the Nasdaq by contrast is down.

The longest run since 2007

The three big American indices are on course for their fourth winning year in a row. For the Dow Jones that would be the longest run since 2014 according to CNBC, for the S&P 500 the longest since 2007 and for the Nasdaq the longest since 2017.

The year is not running entirely smoothly, however. At the start of September Wall Street closed lower, Dow and S&P 500 recorded their weakest day since 20 August, the Nasdaq its weakest since 18 August.

The indices are also drifting apart within the quarter. Dow and S&P 500 are up in the third quarter, the Nasdaq by contrast is down.

More yearly lows than yearly highs

How narrow the base is shows in a figure from 1 September. On that day twelve companies in the S&P 500 recorded a new yearly low, but only seven a new yearly high.

Who stands at the top and who at the bottom

Among the yearly lows, alongside Nike, were mainly travel and leisure stocks, including Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, VICI Properties and Carnival. On the other side stood health stocks such as Solventum and Pfizer as well as names from the energy sector. Pfizer reached 29.09 dollars, a level last seen in October 2024.

Assessment

Four winning years in a row sounds like a very calm market. A look beneath the surface shows something else.

Travel, leisure and consumer at yearly lows, health and energy at yearly highs. That is not a general move upwards but a shift out of sectors that depend on the economy and on consumer mood into ones that do not.

The Nasdaq is notable. The fact that of all indices the technology index is falling back in the current quarter while the other two gain does not fit the story of an unchecked technology boom.

Frequently asked questions

How long would the run be for the individual indices

For the Dow Jones a fourth winning year in a row would be the longest run since 2014 according to CNBC, for the S&P 500 the longest since 2007 and for the Nasdaq the longest since 2017.

What does market breadth mean

It describes how many individual stocks carry an index move. More yearly lows than yearly highs while an index sits near its record counts as a classic warning signal for narrow breadth. The index level then hangs mostly on a few very large stocks, while the rest falls behind.

Which stocks stood at yearly lows on 1 September

Alongside Nike mainly travel and leisure stocks, including Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, VICI Properties and Carnival. On the other side stood health stocks such as Solventum and Pfizer as well as names from the energy sector, with Pfizer reaching 29.09 dollars.

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice.