Greek central bank warns on tourism as revenue jumps 26 percent

The short version

• Greek travel revenue rose 25.8 percent to about 5.3 billion euros between January and May 2026, with 8.57 million foreign visitors.
• The Bank of Greece warns about climate change, overtourism and dependence on a sector worth almost twenty percent of economic output.
• Rents in Athens rose by more than fifty percent between 2019 and 2024, with roughly 150,000 flats converted into tourist accommodation.

The Bank of Greece warns in its latest monetary policy report about climate change, overtourism and the growing dependence of the economy on travel. The warning lands in a year when the country's travel revenue is rising sharply.

From January to May 2026 it climbed 25.8 percent to around 5.3 billion euros. The number of foreign visitors grew 20.9 percent to 8.57 million. Germany remains the most important source market with over 1.2 million travellers, up 13.6 percent. Spending by British holidaymakers jumped 50.9 percent.

Greece had already posted record revenue of 23.6 billion euros in 2025, up 9.4 percent while arrivals grew only 5.6 percent. Travel accounts for almost twenty percent of economic output and a similar share of jobs.

The central bank's arguments are concrete. Extreme summer heat, wildfires and water shortages hit exactly the regions and months the business rests on. Shifting the travel season is hard to absorb economically, because hotels, staff and transport are all built around the summer.

From bailout case to investment grade borrower

The state of public finances has changed fundamentally. According to the national debt agency the debt ratio fell from 207 percent of economic output in 2020 to 153.6 percent at the end of 2024. For 2026 the International Monetary Fund expects around 137 percent and for 2027 about 134 percent.

In 2025 Athens ran a primary surplus of 4.9 percent of economic output. All five rating agencies recognised by the European Central Bank again rate the country as investment grade. The yield on ten year government bonds stood at 3.78 percent in early August.

There is no sign of new rescue measures or bond purchases in favour of Greece.

Rents in Athens up more than 50 percent

The downside shows up in housing. Between 2019 and 2024 rents in Athens rose by more than fifty percent. Reports put the shortfall in the big cities at around 180,000 homes, with about 150,000 converted into tourist accommodation.

Construction collapsed during the debt crisis, so barely any new housing was built for more than a decade. When the market recovered, investors directed their capital towards short term rentals, where returns beat long term leases.

Greece still ranks last in the European Union for income per head adjusted for purchasing power. In April 2026 the government raised the minimum wage by 4.5 percent. Inflation in the same month was 5.4 percent, or 4.6 percent on the harmonised European measure, against three percent on average in the eurozone. Heating oil cost more than half as much again as a year earlier.

Growth forecast cut

The European Commission has scaled back its forecast sharply. Instead of 2.2 percent, as assumed in the autumn, the economy is now seen growing only 1.8 percent in 2026. For 2027 the figure is 1.6 percent. Both remain above the EU average of 1.1 percent.

The sharpest cut concerns investment. It is expected to rise 7.3 percent in 2026 but only 1.3 percent in 2027. The reason is the expiry of European funding. Greece has a total of 36 billion euros from the recovery fund available until the end of August 2026, more relative to economic output than any other country.

Frequently asked questions

How much did Greek tourism revenue rise in 2026

Travel revenue rose 25.8 percent to about 5.3 billion euros between January and May 2026. The number of foreign visitors grew 20.9 percent to 8.57 million. In the full year 2025 Greece had already posted record revenue of 23.6 billion euros.

What is the Greek central bank warning about

The Bank of Greece names climate change, overtourism and the growing dependence of the economy on travel, a sector that accounts for almost twenty percent of economic output and a similar share of jobs. Extreme summer heat, wildfires and water shortages hit precisely the regions and months the business rests on. Shifting the season is hard to absorb, because hotels, staff and transport are built around the summer.

How does tourism affect the housing market in Athens

Rents in Athens rose by more than fifty percent between 2019 and 2024. Reports put the shortfall in the big cities at around 180,000 homes, with about 150,000 converted into tourist accommodation. Investors favour short term rentals because returns there beat long term leases.

Is Greece rated investment grade again

All five rating agencies recognised by the European Central Bank again rate Greece as investment grade. The yield on ten year government bonds stood at 3.78 percent in early August 2026, and Athens ran a primary surplus of 4.9 percent of economic output in 2025. There is no sign of new rescue measures or bond purchases in favour of the country.

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice.