Micron is up 240 percent and still 20 percent below its June high

Micron Technology has gained around 240 percent this year and has therefore left the American benchmark index and its 14 percent far behind. Market value stands at just under 1.1 trillion dollars.

At the same time the share trades more than 20 percent below its high from the end of June. On 14 August the price was around 966 dollars, and the previous close was 949.83 dollars.

That combination describes the real question about this stock. Is the development another memory cycle that turns like all the earlier ones, or a lasting shift.

The short version

• Micron has gained around 240 percent this year, and market value stands at just under 1.1 trillion dollars.
• Revenue in the third financial quarter was 41.5 billion dollars, up 346 percent on the year before, at a gross margin of around 81 percent.
• The entire production of high bandwidth memory for 2026 is already sold through binding contracts.

Figures the industry has hardly seen

In the third financial quarter, which ended on 28 May, Micron generated revenue of 41.5 billion dollars. That is a rise of 74 percent against the previous quarter and 346 percent against the year before.

Net profit reached 28.2 billion dollars, an increase of 105 percent against the previous quarter and 205 percent against the year before.

For the current quarter the company signals 50 billion dollars of revenue and earnings of 30.73 dollars per share. Analysts had expected 42.5 billion dollars. The gross margin was around 81 percent.

A gross margin of that level is exceptional at a maker of semiconductors and sits at the level of software companies.

Why this cycle could be different

The argument of the optimists rests on a technical particularity. High bandwidth memory, known in the industry as HBM, stacks conventional memory layers on top of one another and thereby achieves more performance at lower power consumption.

Manufacturing it ties up considerably more capacity than ordinary memory. Every unit of HBM uses a multiple of the wafer area of a standard component.

From that arises a relationship that is changing the industry. Expanding HBM production at the same time limits the ability of manufacturers to flood other memory markets with supply. In earlier cycles that was exactly the cause of price collapses.

The entire HBM production for 2026 is already sold through binding contracts. Allocation was completed in the fourth quarter of 2025. A considerable part of the capacity for 2027 has also been allocated.

The data centre business now accounts for more than 56 percent of total revenue.

Micron expects the market for HBM to grow 40 percent a year to 2028, from 35 billion dollars in 2025 to around 100 billion dollars. That would make this segment larger than the entire business with conventional working memory in 2024.

A Chinese competitor moves ahead

On the other side stand concrete burdens. The Chinese manufacturer YMTC has overtaken Micron in worldwide market share in flash memory.

That is where the debate about new capacity starts. In flash memory the technological gap of Chinese suppliers to the international makers counts as smaller than in working memory, and new plants add capacity.

Two further risks come on top. First, export restrictions on chips for artificial intelligence could indirectly hit demand for HBM, because this memory is sold as part of complete accelerator modules.

Second, analysts point to extensive sales from the circle of executives. Such transactions can serve personal diversification, but they deserve attention at a price rise of this size.

The third point is the valuation itself. After the share has tripled, any disappointment on earnings or guidance would bite particularly hard.

Price targets up to 1,500 dollars

Analyst views are predominantly positive. Of 45 houses surveyed in July, 40 advised buying and five holding. According to another survey the consensus rating at 29 houses is buy at an average target of 1,261 dollars.

Pierre Ferragu of New Street raised his rating from neutral to buy and named a target of 1,250 dollars. His calculation is notable. Micron could hold more than 600 billion dollars of liquid funds by 2030 and generate more than 150 billion dollars of free cash flow a year. At the current valuation that would correspond to a yield of around 14 percent.

Other houses name targets up to 1,500 dollars.

What matters in the coming quarters the analysts name themselves. Gross margins, HBM prices, new capacity and the development of earnings estimates. If earnings stay at this level permanently, the current price to earnings ratio would be low. If the cycle turns, the opposite applies.

Frequently asked questions

Why could this cycle be different

High bandwidth memory stacks conventional memory layers on top of one another and ties up considerably more wafer area. Expanding that production at the same time limits the ability of manufacturers to flood other memory markets with supply. In earlier cycles that was exactly the cause of price collapses.

What risks do analysts name

The Chinese manufacturer YMTC has overtaken Micron in market share in flash memory. On top of that come possible export restrictions on chips for artificial intelligence and extensive sales from the circle of executives. The third point is the valuation itself.

How large is the market for this memory meant to become

Micron expects the market to grow 40 percent a year to 2028, from 35 billion dollars in 2025 to around 100 billion dollars. That would make this segment larger than the entire business with conventional working memory in 2024.

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice.