Nike at a twelve year low, eight quarters of China decline

The short version

• On 1 September the Nike share stood at 38.10 dollars in New York and at 33.10 euros on Xetra. The 52 week high from August 2025 had been 79.13 dollars.
• Revenue in Greater China has fallen for eight quarters in a row. In financial year 2026 it dropped around 13 percent on a currency basis, from 6.59 to about 5.85 billion dollars.
• Adjusted for a one off tariff refund the gross margin in the fourth quarter was around 40.2 percent and therefore only 0.1 points below the previous quarter.

The lowest level since August 2014

The Nike share marked a new yearly low at the start of September. On 1 September the price stood at 38.10 dollars in New York and at 33.10 euros on Xetra. The 52 week high from August 2025 had still been 79.13 dollars.

The price has therefore roughly halved within a year. The monthly chart shows a distance of around 78.6 percent from the peak of November 2021. The share last traded at this level in August 2014.

The decline began before the China headlines

The trigger does not lie in a single event. After the quarterly figures the price already fell 15.5 percent on 1 April, months before the China headlines in August.

That is exactly where the sore point sits. Revenue in Greater China has now fallen for eight quarters in a row. In financial year 2026 it dropped around 13 percent on a currency basis, from 6.59 to about 5.85 billion dollars. Total annual revenue was around 46 billion dollars, a fall of about one percent.

The margin and the one off effect

One detail on the margin is interesting. Adjusted for a one off tariff refund the gross margin in the fourth quarter was around 40.2 percent and therefore only 0.1 points below the previous quarter. Management had previously expected a decline of 0.25 to 0.75 points.

Trading volume at the low

The trading volume is also notable. It has risen steadily over the course of the decline. High turnover at multi year lows shows selling pressure on the one hand, but on the other hand it also counts as a possible sign that the last doubters are giving up.

Assessment

Eight quarters of decline in a single region is no longer a dip in the cycle but a structural problem. In China Nike now competes with domestic brands that played no role ten years ago.

What makes me pause about the figures is the margin. Without the tariff effect it would have stayed almost stable, and that despite falling revenue. That suggests the cost side is already working. Revenue is the problem, not efficiency.

The real question is whether the brand wins back its pull with younger customers. No chart answers that.

Frequently asked questions

How far is the Nike share from its peak

The monthly chart shows a distance of around 78.6 percent from the peak of November 2021. Against the 52 week high of 79.13 dollars from August 2025 the price has roughly halved within a year. The share last traded at the level of 1 September, that is 38.10 dollars, in August 2014.

Why does the gross margin look better than it is

Because a one off tariff refund flowed into the result, that is a repayment of import duties already paid. Adjusted for that effect the gross margin in the fourth quarter was around 40.2 percent and therefore 0.1 points below the previous quarter. Management had expected a decline of 0.25 to 0.75 points.

What does the rising trading volume at the multi year low say

It has risen steadily over the course of the decline. High turnover at multi year lows shows selling pressure on the one hand. On the other hand it counts as a possible sign that the last doubters are giving up.

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice.